Obligatory Top-10 Tech Predictions for 2013

I did this last year, so rather than shatter any expectations of readers, I will be sharing my technical prescience once again. Of course, all of them came true last year ¹, so here goes:

1. Despite Google's best efforts, users still won't realise that Google Hangouts has a social network attached.
2. Apple will lose its way, so will its users - thanks Apple maps.
3. Windows 8 will fail to revive the glory days of Windows ME.
4. More and more services will move into the cloud, mainly thanks to cloud based companies continuing to expand the definition of what cloud based services actually are.
5. Malware writers will increasingly target web exploits to avoid the hassle of writing for multiple platforms. Software companies will just complain about having to write for multiple platforms. HTML5 will continue to be largely ignored.
6. Facebook will continue to suck, users will continue to complain about it. Facebook will still have eleventy billion members.
7. Tweets will become the number one source for mainstream news organisations. Mainstream news organisations will publish at least one "twitter is stupid" article per month for "balance".
8. Android will continue to grow despite the sucky API and the need to develop for multiple platforms. Apple will continue to grow despite its command economy for apps.
9. There will be enormous buzz in the tech community over a true Linux-based smartphone OS. Lots of buzz. It'll be so slashdottingly buzzworthy that no-one will notice that it hasn't been released nor does it have any support from any major hardware vendor.
10. 2013 will be the year of the Linux desktop.

So there you have it 2013.

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¹ Disclaimer: This post and any prior "predictions" posts may contain harmful levels of hyperbole and exaggeration.

Obligatory top-10 tech predictions for 2012

I think there's some rule that if you're involved in technology, you have to predict stuff for the next year.

It beats me why, because everyone always seems to get them wrong - maybe the tech press wants a piece the kudos given to economists for making predictions which inevitably turn out to be incorrect.

Anyhow here's mine:

1. Apple will release another iThingy. Hipsters will buy it, regardless of the fact that it's only an incremental release on the previous iThingy. It's times like this I wish I had a Newton - so I could say: "I was using tablets before they were cool. Or even worked properly".
2. Android will continue to inexplicably gain market share, despite still not being able to crack the lucrative hipster market. Apple will continue to sue any android devices that look like they might - and lose. Hipsters will continue to prefer iThingys.
3. Windows Phone will continue to languish mainly because it's about as un-hipster as you can get.
4. Google Plus will continue to grow despite no-one actually admitting to using it. The tech pundits will continue to pronounce its failure until the first mainstream media outlet proclaims it as the new tool of choice for cyberbullying/cyberstalking/farmville and demand "something be done about it". After this, Google Plus will be a real alternative to Facebook.
5. Facebook growth will continue to slow. Pundits will continue to proclaim the death of Facebook. Facebook will still have eleventy billion members.
6. Diaspora will continue to be cool despite no-one actually admitting to using it, or indeed knowing what it is. 
7. Twitter will continue to grow in proportion to those that complain about it.
8. Rightholders will continue to push for more draconian copyright laws. Consumers will get better at using encryption.
9. The State will continue to try to crack down on <insert internet evil here> by proposing even more draconian laws. Citizens will get better at using encryption.
10. 2012 will be the year of the Linux desktop :)

There you have it - 2012, the year that tech will continue doing pretty much what it's done since 2006.

Anonymity, pseudonymity and Google+:an idea to enhance privacy

I've been playing  with Google's new Google+ social network and on the whole I've been impressed. The network seems to combine the best aspects of Twitter and Facebook with a relatively easy to understand privacy model based on "circles". This model is meant to be an analogue of people's offline circles.

However, Google has decided that all profiles must be based on the person's real name which I believe breaks this analogue between online and offline circles and undermines some of the great "open-yet-private" model of Google+

Everyone has different personas depending on which circle they are currently interacting with, their work persona, social persona, family persona, etc. These personas are conveyed by verbal and physical cues when interacting with each persona. These cues cannot be easily replicated online because of the medium. People use pseudonyms to get around this problem, these pseudonyms are often linked to their real persona, but sometimes not. This is a fundamental difference between psudonymity and anonymity.

I use a pseudonym to interact on this blog and on twitter because this is the persona that I want to project to the internet. I interact with people using this persona and although with any quick searching someone could link my real name with my handle, it allows me to use a pseudonymous persona when acting as a public person on the internet. Conversely, my "private" persona, the one linked to my real name, is used to interact with people I know on a personal level.

Google+ conveniently has a privacy system that encourages the adding of people that you might interact with on the internet - not just those who you might know. This means that you're encouraged to add those that you have only ever interacted with pseudonymously which means they are now interacting with you under your real name - even though you have built your relationships under the pseudonym.

There may be many reasons why someone would like to keep those personas separate. For example, I don't want my real name to be searchable on the internet, but I'm happy enough to be found by people searching for my pseudonym - as it's public anyway.

I figure that the reason why Google is enforcing the "real name" policy is all about Search - more specifically providing customisable search results and also providing "endorsements" of results via the user's social relationships (ie. <name> shared this link in Google+ or <name> +1'd this). However, to people who have interacted with me via my pseudonym would find an endorsement by Czaxx more compelling than one by my real name (although the converse would be true for those in my "family" circle). Google+ would be enhanced if users could choose the persona - either real name or pseudonym - that interacts with which circle. For example, my Family circle would see my real name, but my Twitter circle would see my pseudonym - as would members of the public when seeing my +1's or my comments on public posts. Members of the public looking at endorsements by my pseudonym could then search for my other public posts, if they were so inclined (not that I'd expect anyone would care), to see if that endorsement is worth anything  (since a search for my real name would yield very little).

To allow the ability to choose which persona to use to interact with each circle would still fulfill Google's business goals for personalised search and it would also allow another layer of privacy and utility for Google+'s users.